LONDON — The launch of Apple's iPhone with a completely new mobile operating system, user interface and touch screen is a negative in the medium term for smartphone incumbents such as Nokia, Symbian, SonyEricsson and Palm, but the offering is unlikely to repeat the success of the iPod in the mobile phone space, according to Richard Windsor, who tracks the global communications equipment market at Nomura Securities.

Windsor notes that the touch screen "allows for a revolutionary user experience which at the surface looks very compelling for music, videos and photos."

Windosr told EE Times Europe: "Using the phone is sensational. I have never experienced a phone or connected device that is so good to use. It is streets ahead of anything else." The texting and phone functionality, he added however is "debatable."

He stressed that touch screens have proved to be less effective for text and data entry , so there may be some doubt on the effectiveness of the device for e-mails. "You do not seem to get any tactile feedback, so users could get confused when inputing," he said.

Windsor noted that the roll out plans as outlined, which call for one device with (so far) only one carrier for half of 2007, will make the big volumes predicted — 10 million units shipped by 2008 — very tough to achieve.

"Given the timing, geographies and the fact there is only one device, we think that 2 million devices could be sold in 2007 in the best instance," said Windsor.

If very successful, a further 5 million could be sold in 2008, Windsor said, adding "but we believe that the device is too expensive to achieve anything like the success that the Razr has had."

Windsor added that Apple has made huge investments in the iPhone, in both hardware and software design, and "big volumes will be required to recoup that investment." For that Apple will need to offer a portfolio of devices and line up many more network operators, and these will have to come on board and support the phone's operating system.