LONDON — Independent semiconductor market statistician Mike Cowan has revised his 2009 semiconductor annual market estimate to $182.1 billion, which would be equivalent to a market contraction of 26.8 percent. Cowan is predicting that March 2009 sales will come in at $16.93 billion, which would be 32.8 percent down on sales recorded by WSTS for March 2008.
Cowan, who works with actual monthly global semiconductor sales numbers gathered and published by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, uses linear regression analysis of historical data to produce a forecast of worldwide semiconductor sales looking forward over the next five quarters.
For the five quarters from Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 Cowan predicts that sales will be $43.55 billion, $44.13 billion, $47.46 billion, $46.95 billion and $47.57 billion. This equates to year-on-year percentage growth rates of -30.7, -31.8, -31.1, -10.1 and 9.2. It can be seen that Cowan believe the chip market will not return to year-on-year growth until Q1 2010, and only then because relatively low sales will be compared with even weaker sales in Q1 2009.
Related links and articles:
Analyst cuts IC forecast for 2009
WSTS cuts IC forecast for 2008, 2009, 2010
Cowan cuts chip market growth forecast to 4.7 percent
11%
13%
41%
12%
22%
